Thursday, April 21, 2011

00Z F 22 April 2011 Forecast Discussion

Upper trough over Great Basin attm will move eastward and the 500 mb trough axis pass overhead by about 12Z Friday morning, accompanied by cyclogenesis over the high plains. This is a favorable pattern for wind, as noted in yda's discussion, and I expect that winds may not completely quit tonight, and pick up again near or a little before dawn on Friday, continuing most of the day, but with the strongest winds on the flats likely mid-late morning. Probabilities of > 15m/s on M2 80%, probability of > 25m/s 30%.

Winds are likely to die down a little in the afternoon, but continue at least to 6pm MDT. Attm it looks as if Friday night and Saturday will be fairly quiet, with winds for the most part < 10m/s. We continue in an active weather pattern, however, and periods of precipitation and periods of wind (usually not overlapping) appear likely for the next several days.

Next update: late Friday afternoon.

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