Siemens 12Z WRF Forecast, NAM Initialization

Siemens 12Z WRF Forecast initialized by NAM shows an increase in windspeed headed into Wednesday evening and Thursday. Also, note the windshifts. Times are in UTC.

Siemens WRF 12Z Forecast, Boulder Turbine

Greetings everyone,

Similar to what John has posted on the forecast discussion, the 12Z Siemens WRF run for the Boulder turbine shows significant variability throughout the period. There is a general upward trend of windspeeds into tomorrow evening (Friday 22 April), with a significant windspeed decrease expected. Wind direction shows mostly westerly at hub height with strong variability overnight Friday into Saturday, changing to Southeasterly flow. Any thoughts or discussion?

Siemens 19 April 2011 Windspeed / Wind Direction Forecast

Greetings everyone,

Here is the windspeed forecast. Times are in Z (UTC) and it was initialized from NAM at 12Z. The initialization looks good with Tuesday afternoon. WRF predicts the highest windspeeds will be in the morning, but then die down in the afternoon. It shows Wednesday night into Thursday, a slow gradual gain of windspeed with one period of lesser winds.

And here is the direction forecast. WRF predicts W or NW flow throughout most of the period, not surprisingly.

So what are the thoughts & opinions? Hope to talk to you all tomorrow on the call.

--Paul Quelet

Siemens WRF 12Z forecast, NAM initialization

Everyone,

Here is the Siemens 12Z WRF run. Sorry this took so long to post. Anyway, we have both windspeed and direction plotted here. WRF reveals strong winds tomorrow as well as winds still from the NW and WNW. Any thoughts? These seem to verify with some accuracy so far.

Best regards,

--Paul Quelet & Padriac Fowler

Siemens WRF 12Z forecast, NAM initialization

Everyone...the Siemens WRF run for today is posted. It looks like strong windspeeds are still forecasted for this afternoon into this evening. Note the times are in Z (UTC).

Padriac and Paul will plan on visiting the NREL/NWTC site tomorrow (Fri., 15 Apr.). Hopefully, we can be of some further assistance to the operations.

WRF Siemens 12Z run from NAM initilization

WRF 12Z Forecast for 80.5 m (approximately hub height). Times above show forecast valid time in UTC (Z). It looks like Thursday afternoon into evening is strong winds like we were talking about. The stronges winds look to be predicted for just past sunrise. Any comments or thoughts? Maybe there will be downward momentum mixing afterwards.

WRF 3.33 km Siemens Boulder Turbine 72 hr. Forecast

This is the WRF output Meteogram for the 72 hr. forecast at hub height. You can see that the forecast is farily significant for Thursday evening in terms of windspeed.