18Z M 2 May Forecast Discussion

The rest of today, Monday, should see light winds, except for a few gusts to up to 10m/s in vicinity of the light showers. The threat of showers on the flats will end by 4pm MDT, and clouds will dissipate by sunset.

Monday night will see warming and drying conditions aloft and downslope developing between midnight and dawn. I foresee a pretty good chance of west wind toward dawn on Tu, probably continuing through much of the afternoon on Tu. Assuming west wind does kick in by dawn, there is likely to be a transition during the morning toward a more gusty character to the west wind as the boundary layer becomes convective. Although wave clouds (induced by both vertically propagating and trapped lee waves) are expected for most of the day, no pcpn is anticipated.

A weak surge from the N is likely during the Tu-W nighttime hours, most likely after midnight, and W looks to be a day of light to moderate winds, most likely beginning from the N - NE and then veering to E - SE by noon. Low clouds are likely in the morning at least, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of some morning drizzle or afternoon showers.

Later in the week looks favorable for more daytime west winds due to mixing down of momentum aloft as afternoon deep daytime mixed layers are likely.

Chances of peak wind gusts on M2 .....>15m/s ................ > 25m/s

18Z M 2 May through 06Z Tu 3 May............ near 0%

06-12Z Tu 3 May ...................................... 40% ................ near 0%

12-18Z Tu 3 May ...................................... 60% ................ 10%

18Z Tu 3 - 00Z W 4 May............................ 60% ................ near 0%

00-06Z W 4 May ...................................... 40% ................ near 0%